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2016 Loan Origination and Delinquency News

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released an updated forecast for commercial and multifamily real estate finance volumes for 2016. MBA estimates that 2016 volumes should reach $500 billion, roughly in line with 2015’s total of $504 billion and just below the record of $508 billion originated in 2007. Commercial and multifamily debt outstanding is expected to reach $2.9 trillion in 2016 up more than 3% from the end of 2015.

At the same time, Trepp, LLC reports that CMBS delinquencies rose in May for the fourth consecutive month to 4.35%. Much of the increase is being credited to higher maturity defaults – loans that have matured but haven’t been able to find refinancing to pay off the balloon balance. In reviewing these two reports, Q10 Capital’s president and CEO, Bob Stout noted that the market discussion around CMBS indicates more maturing loans will be unable to be refinanced in the coming months so the delinquency rate could climb even higher. The delinquency rates of loans owned in portfolio by life insurance companies and originated through the GSE’s continue to be near record lows.

“Given the continued lack of clarity around the impact of risk retention rules being implemented late this year, it is possible that CMBS origination levels continue to decline. This could reduce the total origination numbers being forecast by MBA”, Stout said. Current volume forecasts for CMBS are in the $60 billion range down from the $125 billion that was being forecast at the beginning of the year. Current CMBS debt outstanding in the US was $565.9 billion as of the end of the second quarter of 2016 down from its peak of $866.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2007 according to SIFMA a securities industry trade group.

Stay in touch with your Q10 Capital affiliated mortgage banker for the latest in market trends, active capital sources, and available terms and pricing.

Q10 Capital Member Companies Have Great 2015!

Q10 Capital’s 14 partner companies finished 2015 with total loan production of $5.15 Billion. This was the groups best year since 2007 closing 698 loans with 150 different capital sources. In closing out the year, Q10 Capital Chairman Ray Driver said, “We owe a great deal of gratitude to our borrowers, capital providers and teammates for an outstanding year.” The Q10 members also grew servicing for the year to $11.9 Billion and over 3,600 loans. With the increasing level of maturing loans, 2016 promises to be another strong year.

MBA Research Update from MBACREF16

During the 2016  MBA CREF Convention in February, the MBA released several reports covering the commercial/multifamily real estate finance markets. The reports are part of MBA’s ongoing research and analysis…